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The economic consequences of Syriza

Jul 6th 2015, 14:54 by C.R. and S.N. | LONDON AND ATHENS

AFTER the party in Syntagma Square celebrating the landslide victory for the “no” campaign in Sunday’s referendum comes the hangover. They went wild “because we are tired of everything, from all the lies, from paying for the rich, and from years of austerity, especially for young”, as one partying Athenian told us. To be fair, with youth unemployment rates of over 50%, many have had little to celebrate for a long time. Young Greeks support the aggressive stance taken towards the country’s lenders by Syriza and its leader, the Greek prime minister Alexis T spiras, whose position in domestic politics has been strengthened as a result of the referendum.

But two days after the close of the polls the fact remains that Greece’s real economy is in a mess. Capital controls imposed after Mr Tsipras called the referendum on June 26th have kept banks closed. Ordinary Greeks have been limited to cash withdrawals from ATMs of just €60 ($67) a day (which is now in effect down to €50 as smaller notes have disappeared from circulation). Many cash machines in Athens have run completely out of money.

Unsurprisingly, as a result, Greek economic growth—which began to falter shortly after Syriza came to power in January—has collapsed. Consumption has slumped by 70% since capital controls were imposed, according to the National Confederation of Hellenic Commerce, a business group. Individuals and firms are hoarding cash at the same time that essential goods are becoming unavailable—a toxic mix for any economy. The decision taken yesterday by the European Central Bank—to keep in place the cap on emergency lending to Greek banks, and to increase the discount applied on Greek bonds accepted as collateral—will tighten the short-run financial crunch.

Greece is running short of time; in the next few days either a new deal will be done that allows the ECB to reopen the liquidity spigots or bank failures will lead to Grexit. In either case, the damage done by this period of uncertainty and financial drought will be severe.

Economic history suggests that economies can be surprisingly resilient when hit by shocks, such as the temporary imposition of capital controls or a reduction in the supply capacity of the economy. The Cypriot economy, for instance, started to grow again just one year after it imposed capital controls in 2013. And as Britain’s experience of general strikes indicates, temporary one- or two-week supply disruptions do not tend to have much impact on output after about a year. Leaving a single currency may also not be a complete disaster; countries such as Ireland (which left the British pound in 1928) have managed it before. And many countries ditching fixed-exchange rates—such as Britain in 1931 and 1992—exited long recessions almost immediately after they bit the bullet.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2015/07/

Translation

The economic consequences of Syriza

As consequências econômicas do Syriza

AFTER the party in Syntagma Square celebrating the landslide victory for the “no” campaign in Sunday’s referendum comes the hangover. They went wild “because we are tired of everything, from all the lies, from paying for the rich, and from years of austerity, especially for young”, as one partying Athenian told us. To be fair, with youth unemployment rates of over 50%, many have had little to celebrate for a long time. Young Greeks support the aggressive stance taken towards the country’s lenders by Syriza and its leader, the Greek prime minister Alexis Tspiras, whose position in domestic politics has been strengthened as a result of the referendum.

Depois da festa na Praça Syntagma celebrando a vitória esmagadora para o “não” da campanha no referendo de domingo vem a ressaca. Eles foram à loucura, “porque estamos cansados de tudo, de todas as mentiras, de pagar para os ricos, e de anos de austeridade, especialmente para os jovens”, nos disse um dos participantes atenienses. Para ser justo, com taxas de desemprego juvenil de mais de 50%, muitos tiveram pouco a comemorar por muito tempo. Jovens gregos apoiam a postura agressiva tomada em relação aos credores do país pelo Syriza, um partido político de esquerda da Grécia, e seu líder, o primeiro-ministro grego Alexis Tspiras, cuja posição na política interna foi reforçada como resultado do referendo.

But two days after the close of the polls the fact remains that Greece’s real economy is in a mess. Capital controls imposed after Mr Tspiras called the referendum on June 26th have kept banks closed. Ordinary Greeks have been limited to cash withdrawals from ATMs of just €60 ($67) a day (which is now in effect down to €50 as smaller notes have disappeared from circulation). Many cash machines in Athens have run completely out of money.

Mas dois dias após o encerramento das urnas permanece o fato de que a real economia da Grécia está uma bagunça. Os controles de capital impostos depois que Tspiras solicitou o referendo em 26 de junho tem mantido os bancos fechados. O limite do saque diário em dinheiro em caixas eletrônicos é de apenas € 60 (67 dólares) (agora está em vigor € 50 já que notas menores desapareceram de circulação). Muitos caixas eletrônicos em Atenas estão completamente sem dinheiro.

Unsurprisingly, as a result, Greek economic growth—which began to falter shortly after Syriza came to power in January—has collapsed. Consumption has slumped by 70% since capital controls were imposed, according to the National Confederation of Hellenic Commerce, a business group. Individuals and firms are hoarding cash at the same time that essential goods are becoming unavailable—a toxic mix for any economy. The decision taken yesterday by the European Central Bank—to keep in place the cap on emergency lending to Greek banks, and to increase the discount applied on Greek bonds accepted as collateral—will tighten the short-run financial crunch.

Não é novidade que, como resultado, o crescimento econômico grego que começou a vacilar logo depois que o Syriza chegou ao poder em janeiro, entrou em colapso. O consumo tem caído em 70% desde a instituição de controles de capital foi imposta, de acordo com a Confederação Nacional da Comércio Helênico, um grupo empresarial. Pessoas físicas e jurídicas estão acumulando dinheiro, ao mesmo tempo que os bens essenciais estão se tornando indisponíveis, uma mistura tóxica para qualquer economia. A decisão tomada ontem pelo Banco Central Europeu, para manter no seu devido lugar o limite máximo em empréstimos de emergência para os bancos gregos, e para aumentar o desconto aplicado em títulos gregos aceitos como garantia, vai apertar a crise financeira de curto prazo.

Greece is running short of time; in the next few days either a new deal will be done that allows the ECB to reopen the liquidity spigots or bank failures will lead to Grexit. In either case, the damage done by this period of uncertainty and financial drought will be severe.

O tempo da Grécia está acabando; nos próximos dias ou um novo acordo será feito que permite ao BCE reabrir as torneiras da liquidez ou as insolvências bancárias provocarão a saída da Grécia da Zona do Euro. Em ambos os casos, os danos causados por este período de incerteza e a crise financeira vão se agravar.

Economic history suggests that economies can be surprisingly resilient when hit by shocks, such as the temporary imposition of capital controls or a reduction in the supply capacity of the economy. The Cypriot economy, for instance, started to grow again just one year after it imposed capital controls in 2013. And as Britain’s experience of general strikes indicates, temporary one- or two-week supply disruptions do not tend to have much impact on output after about a year. Leaving a single currency may also not be a complete disaster; countries such as Ireland (which left the British pound in 1928) have managed it before. And many countries ditching fixed-exchange rates—such as Britain in 1931 and 1992—exited long recessions almost immediately after they bit the bullet.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2015/07/

A história econômica sugere que as economias podem ser surpreendentemente resistentes quando atingidas por choques, tal como a imposição temporária de controles de capital ou uma redução da capacidade de oferta da economia. A economia cipriota, por exemplo, começou a crescer novamente apenas um ano depois impôs controles de capital em 2013. E como a experiência da Grã-Bretanha de greves gerais indica, rupturas de abastecimento temporárias de uma ou duas semanas não tendem a ter muito impacto sobre a produção após cerca de um ano. Deixar uma moeda única também não pode ser um desastre completo; países como a Irlanda (que deixou a libra britânica em 1928) conseguiram isso antes. E muitos países rejeitando taxas de câmbio fixo, como a Grã-Bretanha em 1931 e 1992, saíram de longas recessões quase imediatamente depois de terem suportado períodos difíceis.