{"id":60643,"date":"2017-01-09T14:34:18","date_gmt":"2017-01-09T17:34:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.estrategiaconcursos.com.br\/blog\/?p=60643"},"modified":"2017-01-09T16:39:32","modified_gmt":"2017-01-09T19:39:32","slug":"posse-do-trump-e-as-consequencias-para-economia-global","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.estrategiaconcursos.com.br\/blog\/posse-do-trump-e-as-consequencias-para-economia-global\/","title":{"rendered":"A posse do Trump e as consequ\u00eancias para a economia global"},"content":{"rendered":"

A posse do Trump e a economia global<\/p>\n

Oi pessoal,<\/p>\n

Em breve haver\u00e1 um acontecimento hist\u00f3rico. No pr\u00f3ximo dia 20 de Janeiro de 2017, o 45 \u00ba \u00a0presidente dos Estados Unidos tomar\u00e1 posse (Inauguration Day<\/em>). Como j\u00e1 era de se esperar, esse \u00e9 o assunto das manchetes dos jornais, revistas e tv americana, com ampla repercuss\u00e3o internacional. O tema \u00e9 abordado em v\u00e1rios aspectos. Dentre eles, escolhi a abordagem sobre a economia, pois esse \u00e9 um t\u00f3pico importante para os concursos, e principalmente para as \u00e1reas fiscal e legislativa.<\/h2>\n

<\/h2>\n

 <\/p>\n

N\u00e3o se preocupem, que estou aqui super “antenada” com as not\u00edcias dos principais jornais e mais populares dos Estados Unidos. O meu favorito \u00e9 o CBS News com o Scott Pelley. \u00c9 com base no que assisto que escolho os textos que traduzo para voc\u00eas nos artigos e nas minhas aulas. Sei que s\u00e3o justamente esses tipos de assuntos que as bancas escolhem para elaborar as provas, n\u00e3o apenas de Ingl\u00eas, mas tamb\u00e9m Atualidades, e outras.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Mas, quais ser\u00e3o as poss\u00edveis consequ\u00eancias da presid\u00eancia de Trump para a economia global? O artigo de hoje vem explicando. Pesquisei esse texto em uma publica\u00e7\u00e3o brit\u00e2nica, o Economist<\/em>, pois ela \u00e9 a publica\u00e7\u00e3o mais usada pela ESAF para elaborar as provas de Ingl\u00eas. Ao passo que voc\u00ea treina tradu\u00e7\u00e3o, fica atualizado. Como sempre fa\u00e7o, coloco apenas o texto em ingl\u00eas para que voc\u00ea tente traduzi-lo sozinho e mais abaixo com a tradu\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Our election, your problem<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

IT IS not clear precisely how Donald Trump will govern, the extent to which he will carry out some of his scarier promises on trade and immigration, and who will be his economics top brass at the Treasury and in the White House. But a decent first guess is that President Trump will be bad for the world economy in aggregate; and a second is that his actions are likely to do more harm, in the short term at least, to economies outside America.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

When America has in the past stepped aside from its role at the centre of the global economic system, the damage has spread well beyond its borders. In 1971, when Richard Nixon ended the post-war system of fixed exchange-rates that had America at its centre, his Treasury secretary, John Connally, told European leaders, \u201cThe dollar is our currency, but your problem.\u201d This election result, to paraphrase Connally, belongs to America but is potentially a bigger economic problem for everyone else.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The scale and nature of that problem depend on the interplay of the two main elements of Mr Trump\u2019s economic populism. The first is action to boost aggregate demand. Mr Trump favours tax cuts and extra public spending on infrastructure. The second element is trade protectionism. He has pledged to slap tariffs on Chinese imports and to renegotiate the North American Free-Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with Mexico and Canada. To the extent that he leans more on the first element and less on the second, the immediate damage to America\u2019s economy will be limited. But even in that event, the net effect of a Trump presidency on economies outside America is still likely to be harmful.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

China is safe from the biggest indirect effect of Mr Trump\u2019s victory: the boost it gives other populist politicians. Europe is far more vulnerable. Britain\u2019s vote in June to leave the European Union was one early ballot-box reflection of anti-establishment sentiment. Since then, insurgent political parties in France, Germany, Italy and elsewhere have called for referendums on membership. Such parties typically favour trade barriers and limits on immigration, and are gaining in popularity.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The euro area\u2019s economy has been faring better in recent years, but the single currency remains fragile. The kind of cross-border risk-sharing needed to put the euro on a sound footing is at odds with the rising tides of nationalism and populism. An immediate hurdle is Italy\u2019s referendum on constitutional reform on December 4th. A defeat would weaken Matteo Renzi, the reformist prime minister, and embolden the populist Five Star Movement, which favours ditching the euro. Around 14% of the euro area\u2019s goods exports go to America, quite a bit less than China\u2019s 18%. But America accounts for about 40% of the currency zone\u2019s recent export growth, according to economists at HSBC, a bank. So American protectionism is arguably a bigger threat to Europe than to China.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The whole world has much to fear from Mr Trump\u2019s threats to tear up trade agreements and impose punitive tariffs on imports. And even if he refrains from starting a trade war, the loose-tongued, fact-lite style he cultivated during the campaign could wreak serious damage when he is president. His hyperbolic threats now carry the weight of the American presidency. His victory was enough to chill some financial markets; what he might do with it could spark full-scale panic. Even short of that, like the Brexit vote, it marks an alarming step away from a liberal, open economic order towards more isolationism and less prosperity.<\/p>\n

http:\/\/www.economist.com\/news\/finance-and-economics\/21709980-trump-presidency-will-be-bad-world-economy-and-worse-places-outside<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Translation<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Our election, your problem<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nossa elei\u00e7\u00e3o, seu problema<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

IT IS not clear precisely how Donald Trump will govern, the extent to which he will carry out some of his scarier promises on trade and immigration, and who will be his economics top brass at the Treasury and in the White House. But a decent first guess is that President Trump will be bad for the world economy in aggregate; and a second is that his actions are likely to do more harm, in the short term at least, to economies outside America.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

N\u00e3o est\u00e1 claro exatamente como Donald Trump governar\u00e1, at\u00e9 que ponto ele realizar\u00e1 algumas de suas mais assustadoras promessas sobre com\u00e9rcio e imigra\u00e7\u00e3o, e quem ser\u00e1 escolhido para importantes postos na condu\u00e7\u00e3o da economia no Tesouro e na Casa Branca. Mas uma primeira suposi\u00e7\u00e3o aceit\u00e1vel \u00e9 que a presid\u00eancia do Trump ser\u00e1 ruim para a economia mundial coletivamente. E uma segunda \u00e9 que as a\u00e7\u00f5es dele s\u00e3o suscept\u00edveis de prejudicar mais, pelo menos a curto prazo, \u00e0s economias de outros pa\u00edses.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

When America has in the past stepped aside from its role at the centre of the global economic system, the damage has spread well beyond its borders. In 1971, when Richard Nixon ended the post-war system of fixed exchange-rates that had America at its centre, his Treasury secretary, John Connally, told European leaders, \u201cThe dollar is our currency, but your problem.\u201d This election result, to paraphrase Connally, belongs to America but is potentially a bigger economic problem for everyone else.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Quando os Estados Unidos, no passado, se afastou de seu papel no centro do sistema econ\u00f4mico global, os danos se espalharam muito al\u00e9m de suas fronteiras. Em 1971, quando Richard Nixon terminou o sistema p\u00f3s-guerra de taxas de c\u00e2mbio fixas que tinha os Estados Unidos no centro, seu secret\u00e1rio da Fazenda, John Connally, disse aos l\u00edderes europeus: “O d\u00f3lar \u00e9 a nossa moeda, mas \u00e9 seu problema”. \u00a0Parafraseando Connally, o resultado da elei\u00e7\u00e3o pertence aos Estados Unidos, mas \u00e9 potencialmente um problema econ\u00f4mico maior para todos os outros pa\u00edses.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The scale and nature of that problem depend on the interplay of the two main elements of Mr Trump\u2019s economic populism. The first is action to boost aggregate demand. Mr Trump favours tax cuts and extra public spending on infrastructure. The second element is trade protectionism. He has pledged to slap tariffs on Chinese imports and to renegotiate the North American Free-Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with Mexico and Canada. To the extent that he leans more on the first element and less on the second, the immediate damage to America\u2019s economy will be limited. But even in that event, the net effect of a Trump presidency on economies outside America is still likely to be harmful.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

A dimens\u00e3o e a natureza desse problema dependem da intera\u00e7\u00e3o dos dois elementos principais do populismo econ\u00f4mico do Trump. A primeira \u00e9 a a\u00e7\u00e3o para impulsionar a demanda no total. Trump defende cortes de impostos e gastos p\u00fablicos extras em infra-estrutura. O segundo elemento \u00e9 o protecionismo comercial. Ele prometeu impor tarifas sobre as importa\u00e7\u00f5es chinesas e renegociar o Acordo de Livre Com\u00e9rcio da Am\u00e9rica do Norte (NAFTA) com o M\u00e9xico e o Canad\u00e1. Na medida em que ele se inclina mais no primeiro elemento e menos no segundo, o dano imediato \u00e0 economia dos Estados Unidos ser\u00e1 limitado. Mas mesmo nesse evento, o efeito l\u00edquido da presid\u00eancia do Trump em economias de outros pa\u00edses ainda \u00e9 prov\u00e1vel que seja prejudicial.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

China is safe from the biggest indirect effect of Mr Trump\u2019s victory: the boost it gives other populist politicians. Europe is far more vulnerable. Britain\u2019s vote in June to leave the European Union was one early ballot-box reflection of anti-establishment sentiment. Since then, insurgent political parties in France, Germany, Italy and elsewhere have called for referendums on membership. Such parties typically favour trade barriers and limits on immigration, and are gaining in popularity.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

A China est\u00e1 a salvo do maior efeito indireto da vit\u00f3ria do Trump: o impulso que isso d\u00e1 a outros pol\u00edticos populistas. A Europa \u00e9 muito mais vulner\u00e1vel. O voto da Gr\u00e3-Bretanha em junho para deixar a Uni\u00e3o Europ\u00e9ia foi uma das primeiras vota\u00e7\u00f5es do sentimento anti-conformista. Desde ent\u00e3o, partidos pol\u00edticos insurgentes na Fran\u00e7a, Alemanha, It\u00e1lia e em outros lugares pediram referendos sobre a ades\u00e3o. Tais partidos tipicamente favorecem barreiras comerciais e limites \u00e0 imigra\u00e7\u00e3o, e est\u00e3o ganhando popularidade.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The euro area\u2019s economy has been faring better in recent years, but the single currency remains fragile. The kind of cross-border risk-sharing needed to put the euro on a sound footing is at odds with the rising tides of nationalism and populism. An immediate hurdle is Italy\u2019s referendum on constitutional reform on December 4th. A defeat would weaken Matteo Renzi, the reformist prime minister, and embolden the populist Five Star Movement, which favours ditching the euro. Around 14% of the euro area\u2019s goods exports go to America, quite a bit less than China\u2019s 18%. But America accounts for about 40% of the currency zone\u2019s recent export growth, according to economists at HSBC, a bank. So American protectionism is arguably a bigger threat to Europe than to China.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

A economia da \u00e1rea do euro tem melhorado nos \u00faltimos anos, mas a moeda \u00fanica continua a ser fr\u00e1gil. O tipo de partilha de riscos internacionais necess\u00e1ria para colocar o euro numa base s\u00f3lida est\u00e1 em contradi\u00e7\u00e3o com as mar\u00e9s crescentes do nacionalismo e do populismo. Um obst\u00e1culo imediato \u00e9 o referendo da It\u00e1lia sobre a reforma constitucional em 4 de dezembro. Uma derrota enfraqueceria Matteo Renzi, o primeiro-ministro reformista, e encorajaria o movimento populista de Cinco Estrelas, que favorece o afundamento do euro. Cerca de 14% das exporta\u00e7\u00f5es de mercadorias da \u00e1rea do euro v\u00e3o para os Estados Unidos, um pouco menos do que os 18% da China. Mas os Estados Unidos representam cerca de 40% do crescimento recente das exporta\u00e7\u00f5es da zona monet\u00e1ria, de acordo com economistas do HSBC, um banco. Portanto, o protecionismo americano \u00e9, sem d\u00favida, uma amea\u00e7a maior \u00e0 Europa do que \u00e0 China.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The whole world has much to fear from Mr Trump\u2019s threats to tear up trade agreements and impose punitive tariffs on imports. And even if he refrains from starting a trade war, the loose-tongued, fact-lite style he cultivated during the campaign could wreak serious damage when he is president. His hyperbolic threats now carry the weight of the American presidency. His victory was enough to chill some financial markets; what he might do with it could spark full-scale panic. Even short of that, like the Brexit vote, it marks an alarming step away from a liberal, open economic order towards more isolationism and less prosperity.<\/p>\n

http:\/\/www.economist.com\/news\/finance-and-economics\/21709980-trump-presidency-will-be-bad-world-economy-and-worse-places-outside<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

O mundo inteiro tem muito a temer das amea\u00e7as do Trump de romper acordos comerciais e impor tarifas punitivas sobre as importa\u00e7\u00f5es. E mesmo que ele se abstenha de iniciar uma guerra comercial, o estilo de linguagem frouxa que ele cultivou durante a campanha poderia causar graves danos quando ele for o presidente. Suas amea\u00e7as hiperb\u00f3licas carregam agora o peso da presid\u00eancia americana. Sua vit\u00f3ria foi suficiente para esfriar alguns mercados financeiros; o que ele poderia fazer com isso poderia causar p\u00e2nico em grande escala. Mesmo aqu\u00e9m disso, como o voto Brexit, isso marca um afastamento alarmante de uma ordem econ\u00f4mica liberal e aberta, em rumo a mais isolacionismo e menos prosperidade.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Para ter acesso a mais textos traduzidos e \u00e0s aulas que ministro aqui no Estrat\u00e9gia nas \u00e1reas fiscal, legislativa e outras, clique no link abaixo.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u00a0Ingl\u00eas – Ena Smith<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Abra\u00e7os e bons estudos,<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Profa. Ena Smith<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A posse do Trump e a economia global Oi pessoal, Em breve haver\u00e1 um acontecimento hist\u00f3rico. No pr\u00f3ximo dia 20 de Janeiro de 2017, o 45 \u00ba \u00a0presidente dos Estados Unidos tomar\u00e1 posse (Inauguration Day). Como j\u00e1 era de se esperar, esse \u00e9 o assunto das manchetes dos jornais, revistas e tv americana, com ampla […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"post_tipo":"article","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[646,511,2223],"tax_estado":[],"class_list":["post-60643","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-cursos-e-concursos","tag-concursos","tag-ingles","tag-traducao"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nA posse do Trump e as consequ\u00eancias para a economia global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.estrategiaconcursos.com.br\/blog\/posse-do-trump-e-as-consequencias-para-economia-global\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_BR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A posse do Trump e as consequ\u00eancias para a economia global\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A posse do Trump e a economia global Oi pessoal, Em breve haver\u00e1 um acontecimento hist\u00f3rico. 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Como j\u00e1 era de se esperar, esse \u00e9 o assunto das manchetes dos jornais, revistas e tv americana, com ampla […]","og_url":"https:\/\/www.estrategiaconcursos.com.br\/blog\/posse-do-trump-e-as-consequencias-para-economia-global\/","og_site_name":"Estrat\u00e9gia Concursos","article_published_time":"2017-01-09T17:34:18+00:00","article_modified_time":"2017-01-09T19:39:32+00:00","author":"Ena Smith","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@EstratConcursos","twitter_site":"@EstratConcursos","twitter_misc":{"Escrito por":"Ena Smith","Est. tempo de leitura":"11 minutos"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https:\/\/www.estrategiaconcursos.com.br\/blog\/posse-do-trump-e-as-consequencias-para-economia-global\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.estrategiaconcursos.com.br\/blog\/posse-do-trump-e-as-consequencias-para-economia-global\/"},"author":{"name":"Ena 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